Abstract:
This paper deals with the interaction between the macro-‐economy and financial markets. Various asset classes behave differently during different phases of the business cycle (or different inflation/growth macroeconomic dimensions) and neither asset class has been a top performer in each macroeconomic environment. We lay down a general case for macro-based asset allocation. The paper proposes that it might be reasonable to rebalance the portfolio based on the macroeconomic regime or a stage of the business cycle in order to produce stable returns with lower volatility than the traditional business cycle-neutral approach. We also claim that, among other things, bank credit growth is an important determinant of asset price fluctuations.
LINK
APA citation