International Conference on Economics, Finance & Business, London

PNRR AND TERRITORIAL FRAGILITY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON THE RESOURCES ALLOCATION IN THE ITALIAN MUNICIPALITIES

CLIO CIASCHINI

Abstract:

In year 2021, after the Covid - 19 Pandemics, the Italian Government issued the so called Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), a national transposition of the Recovery and Resilience Plan, designed by European Union to foster the economic recovery and face the territorial structural fragilities. The Plan includes investments in strategical sectors as ecologic transition, sustainability and digitalization. This study analyses the effectiveness of PNRR in responding to territorial criticalities, focusing on the role of Italian municipalities in the design and implementation of measures. The correlation between the level of territorial criticality and the implementation of funded projects is assessed, verifying whether the Plan meets the needs of the most fragile areas. The analysis focuses on municipal participation in the Plan's missions, including: M1 - Digitalization (including "Digitalization of Public Administration" and "Tourism and Culture"); M2 - Green Revolution and Ecological Transition; M4 - Education and Research; and M5 - Cohesion and Social Inclusion. The level of territorial criticality is measured through the Municipal Fragility Index (IFC) from Istat for the years 2018, 2019, and 2021, which evaluates exposure to natural and anthropogenic risks and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The impact of territorial fragility on the adoption of PNRR measures is examined both through the composite index and its individual indicators. The empirical analysis is based on a regression model where the number of projects for each PNRR mission is correlated with territorial criticality. To correct biases related to the non-random selection of participation in the projects, Heckman sample selection techniques (1979) are employed. The work evaluates whether the allocation of PNRR resources is effectively aimed at countering territorial fragilities or if it follows other logics, such as the administrative capacity of municipalities. The results contribute to the debate on the effectiveness of recovery policies in reducing territorial disparities, providing insights for improving the design and implementation of future interventions.

Keywords: PNRR, Territorial Fragility, Municipalities, Municipal Fragility Index, Heckman model.