This study is an attempt to analyze Customs Union effect in terms of co-integration and periodicity in international trade for Turkey. The most significant contribution of the paper is its use of improved methods to detect periodicity in international trade data. Customs Union (CU) with EU has shown to have significant impacts in EU-Turkey trade relations yet no other study measure the impact of CU in terms of periodicity. In order to search for hidden periodicities in the data, periodograms and periodogram based unit root tests having various strengths as compared to standard methods. The findings show that CU has an impact in EU-Turkey trade relations with regard to periodicity. The study has also policy contributions for similar free trade agreements such as modernized customs union, post-Brexit talks, and new EEA agreements.
International trade; Customs union; Brexit, Co-integration; periodicity
ERKAN ERDIL, YILMAZ AKDI (2019). Customs Union Effect in International Trade: Turkish Case. International Journal of Business and Management, Vol. VII(2), pp. 43-58. , DOI: 10.20472/BM.2019.7.2.004
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