8th Economics & Finance Conference, London

URBAN SLUMS AND FERTILITY RATE DIFFERENTIALS

SHERIF HASSAN, RON MAHABIR

Abstract:

One initial prerequisite for a country to enter a „demographic transition‟ is by creating a „youth bulge‟ via bringing down fertility and mortality rates. The Middle East and North African (MENA) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions have the youngest populations. Yet they encounter the slowest fertility rate reductions. This research investigates the role of growing slums as a moderating factor that would contribute in clarifying regional fertility rate variations. Our cross section OLS and fixed effects panel modeling for a sample of 72 developing countries during 1990-2014 supports the positive fertility rate effects of slums. Our empirical results support the significance of the income-slums moderating channel, entailing that raising slum dwellers‟ income level would influence their decisions towards having fewer children.

Keywords: slums, MENA, SSA, total fertility rate

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