Proceedings of the 21st International Academic Conference, Miami

UNDERSTANDING THE CRISIS BETWEEN TURKEY AND RUSSIA: A NORMALIZATION OR ESCALATION?

ERDEM OZLUK

Abstract:

Recently Turkey and Russia relations are undergoing a serious crisis since the downing of the Russian warplane by Turkish air forces for the violation of the Turkish airspace on 24 November 2015. As a matter of fact, relations between two countries were at the highest level after the end of the Cold War and there was a growing collaboration in terms of political and economic relations between two countries. For example, in 2010, both countries agreed to allow visa-free travel and reached an agreement for building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant. However, because of the regional expansion of Russian power for the last decade, Turkey and Russia has started to hold opposing views on how to overcome regional problems. Especially after the Russian interventionist policies towards first Georgia and Ukraine and then the civil war in Syria, relations between the two countries have sharply deteriorated. Indeed, the ongoing crisis between the two countries is not just related with the civil war in Syria or the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane. Because there have been potential tensions between the two countries in many areas and factors since the end of the Cold War such as Azerbaijan and Armenia relations, Iran and nuclear crisis, transportation routes for hydrocarbon energy supplies, Chechnya in Russia and Kurdish issue in Turkey, geopolitical and military balances in the Black Sea region. The ongoing crisis has escalated in the aftermath the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane. This study argues that the normalization of Russia-Turkey relations in a short time is of utmost importance for the resolution of numerous conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the civil war in Syria and the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). This study also seeks to answer the following questions; what should be done in order to deescalate the crisis? How this crisis may affect the future of war in Syria in particular and certain problems in the Middle East region in general?

Keywords: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, War in Syria

DOI: 10.20472/IAC.2016.021.030

PDF: Download