Proceedings of the 2nd Economics & Finance Conference, Vienna

ESTIMATING OUTPUT GAP AND POTENTIAL OUTPUT FOR RUSSIA AND ITS USELFULNESS BY FORECASTING INFLATION

KLOUDOVÁ DANA

Abstract:

This paper deals with an estimation of output gap and potential output for Russian´s economy. Three methods of estimation have been used for estimating these two unobservable variables: Hodrick-Prescott filter, production function and SVAR model. All methods of estimation showed very similar course, although an obtained values were not identical. Then obtained values of the output gap were used to analyse the ability of output gap to forecast inflation. Two simple gap models were used for this purpose. The results showed that output gap could be used as useful indicator if inflation, according to all methods of estimation output gap.

Keywords: output gap, HP filter, SVAR model, production function, Kalman filter, inflation

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